This is more or less the lesson of "Only the Paranoid Survive" by Andy Grove (of Intel). Over and over again he shows examples where the critical error is the failure to recognize a disruptive change as disruptive, and essentially makes the argument that you have to assume every change is disruptive, because if you wait for the evidence, it's too late.

The problem with this approach is captured in the following classic line, where one pundit was speaking of another: "XXX has predicted 21 of the last 16 recessions."

As you stated, for values of r2.2 (when there is a lot of financial pressure on the management team, for one example) the constant over-reactions can drive a business into the ground with overspending, over supply, under supply, etc. The effect on the business looks the same to those undergoing the swings. Mathematically, one business may survive one type of swing and and the same business will not survive the other, but it really doesn't matter - especially when public trust (brand loyalty, etc.) and investor confidence act as a forcing function.

From study of negative feedback systems for an engineering degree, I learned the following:

To ensure a stable system, not only does the information you act upon have to be *current*, but your reaction to this information should not be *over-reactive*. This is because the information upon which you make decisions is NEVER perfect in the real world. It is always a bit out-of-date or contains errors.

From study of negative feedback systems for an engineering degree, I learned the following:

To ensure a stable system, not only does the information you act upon have to be *current*, but your reaction to this information should not be *over-reactive*. This is because the information upon which you make decisions is NEVER perfect in the real world. It is always a bit out-of-date or contains errors.

Use control charts.

In General System Theory, the conservation of a System is an Entrophy problem, in other words the interchange with the environment, in Social Systems (read Luhmann), is not only a problem of information or decision making is also a problem of Control and the selection of the variables to stablish a measure. The decision making is not the final step, the final step is the solution of the problem, and the generation of a new problem less bigger than the original.

Okay, I'm feeling really behind the curve.

I've read "Collapse" and know a little something about feedback loops. If this educator and musician wanted to get more up-to-speed on the topics mentioned above, what's a good resource? Web sites? Book list? Major thinkers?

This area of thought seems important to my current job (process development, especially software development) and desired future job (public policy work), so I'm glad to spend some time on it.

Anyone?