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Open Sources | Rodrigues & Urlocker » Memo to Microsoft: The readers respond

October 31, 2005 | Comments: (0)

Memo to Microsoft: The readers respond

The comments related to Memo to Microsoft: Buy Novell or JBoss, or both have been pretty interesting. Some basically accuse me of spreading MS FUD, which I assure you I am not inclined to do, and others suggest that the anti-trust impact of MS buying Novell would be detrimental to Microsofts' very existence (I disagree.) The argument that rings most relevant to me is the impact open source licenses like the GPL would have on an acquisition-and this goes for any company, not just MS. It made me realize how important license choice is, and makes wonder how much it affects the valuation of open source companies in general. But a license doesn't necessarily preclude forking GPL'd code into another OS. Regardless, MS could absorb Novell or even RedHat and keep the distros open source without a major financial impact-licensing revenue would just be an additional revenue stream.

We tend to think that MS is either full of FUD or running scared of Linux. The fact of the matter is that they could easily swoop in and have a very big impact on the market. The goal of marketing is to create a monopoly. If you don't think that Microsoft could create another monopoly you are sadly mistaken.

The whole point of the post was to try to get people to think about the technology market. Open source hasn't had a big moment like Oracle's purchase of PeopleSoft-the closest thing was Oracle's purchase of InnoDB. Those of us involved in open source tend to get a little wrapped up in "which is the best distro" and don't spend enough time thinking about the impact on the broader landscape.

Posted by Dave Rosenberg on October 31, 2005 10:56 AM


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The trouble with MS acquiring an open source company is not the question of which company because, no matter the choice, the community associated with that company would disappear overnight, rendering an acquisition hollow.

Yet Microsoft must form a small competitive practice down in the communities of open source in order to be able to have a piece of any market once that market grows sufficiently to compete with their major segments. This is prescribed in Clayton Christensen's "The Innovator's Dilemma" and "The Innovator's Solution."

My conclusion is that it will be impossible for Microsoft to compete in the new IT industry unless Ballmer & Gates retire and the young people can lead to establish a modicum of trust to engage the development communities according to the new modes of collaborative work to open standard API's.

Posted by: Sam Hiser at October 31, 2005 12:55 PM

MS could buy out the entire Linux distros in existance currently without making a dent in its bottom line. To what avail though? More would just pop up to replace them albiet not as good at first until the curve is mastered.

The biggest problem for Linux is the lack of marketing funds and someone to fund it. Each distro is out for itself and I don't see them bunching together to create a generic ad. Of course from a business perspective it don't make a lot of sense either.

I don't see Linux as having a lions share of the market for another 10 years yet so it will be awhile before we write off MS if ever. Otherwise we need it to keep Linux moving forward with some competition. As it is, both Windows and Linux users are winning dividends from the competition and more the intense it gets the better products we will see from both corners.

Posted by: Doug Glenn at October 31, 2005 01:11 PM

Not sure I get it, Dave. Why would Microsoft invest in acquiring JBoss when it has spent all that R&D money to develop the .Net Framework and the CLR? Why would it acquire a Linux vendor when it's spending all that money on Windows? Microsoft has serious not-invented-here syndrome. But more importantly, any attempt to acquire an open source competitor like you describe would surely be interpreted by regulators as being an anti-competitive strategy. There would be no purpose to it, except to eliminate a competitor. As an officially-recognized monopoly, Microsoft has less leeway in that direction than other companies do.

Posted by: Neil McAllister at November 1, 2005 10:12 PM

True on all counts-it would all be anti-competition, but I would be willing to bet that they could sneak JBoss in--Novell would be harder. Regardless it's not in their blood to make those kind of moves, unlike Oracle.

I 'm not suggesting that MS would convert their develop efforts to Java, but I am saying that it would be smart if they owned that market as well.

Let's be honest here, I don't expect them to buy either, nor do I want them to. I was just frustrated by people missing the point that MS can in and dominate a market and these were just 2 examples of open source.

Posted by: Dave Rosenberg at November 2, 2005 07:56 AM

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