The suggested strategy requires a long term investment with hard to quantify returns. Thus making it a strategy for visionaries rather than rational(?) business people...
So I guess the question is: how long will it be before we see a version of Ubuntu packaged for business desktops?

That is a good question. I am using Kubuntu and it's damn close to satisfying all my needs...but the apps still need help.

OO.org is weak, WINE still requires MS licenses...

Dave-

This is a sound set of observations. I believe the reason you have not seen this yet is that Novell and Red Hat are partly struggling with incompetency issues as well as healthy competency issues.

This is to say they are husbanding resources while market share is low and with maturity will be exploring Chasm Marketing opportunities to get their stacks accross the Chasm, from the Innovators & Early, Early Adopters over to the mass of Early Adopters who are more mainstream in thinking. It is important that they not shoot their respective wads before the market is ready. IBM is going to be there too, because their view that large organizations need best solutions -- whether commercial or free software -- is intensely sane. You can see it between the lines of the Workplace approach.

Also, they are not the only likely organizations to take open source & open standards like ODF across the Chasm. I say new entrants for example in Asia will be there (China Standard Software, HCL Infosys). And my thesis is that the Media Lab's Little Green Laptop will double the global PC installed base in a few short years while ramping out all the open things we love. Mind you, by then our little band of heresy will not feel quite so cosy: open source & open standards will not be any more special than salt & pepper by then.

If you consult the general public about open source, especially in the US, such a litmus test still gets the glassy-gaze. After the 25th state to declare ODF, that's when Linux will be a household word and the small or large enterprise stack you visualize will be fundable. It may yet be a few years off.

Remember, also, that at this point the adoption question is not only about an integrated platform. Single-source infrastructures are nice, but they only sell to the IT guys, and isn't single-source Windows what many IT guys are complaining about today? Where's the benefit to users in replacing one vendor-for-all-needs with another? The business users are sold on features and installed base, not on platform homogeneity. Show me a Linux desktop that has all the features of MS Office and Windows, that requires little to no IT expertise to set up, and that functions identically to how users are used to working, and I'll say "There's a viable desktop." The previous commenter says Kubuntu is "damn close to satisfying all [his] needs... but the apps still need help."

It's the apps that count the most.

Leaving aside the immaturity of the desktop paradigms available on Linux (GNOME/KDE/etc), there are three main reasons why Linux desktop market share will stay low for the forseeable future:

(1) Microsoft Office (for business)
(2) Finance Software (for small biz/home)
(3) Games (for home)

None of these requirements are adequately addressed by Linux. Until they are, no self-respecting IT manager could recommend Linux on the desktop and few home users will make the leap.

The rise of webapps like Google XXX may change this equation in the future. But not now.

None wants to rock the boat. Neither the big hardware vendors nor the lowly h/w support companies. Even the big ones scream "We recommend Windows XP" in their Ads.

Most of them behind the pre-installed PC are quite happy to be thrilled by the frequent brek-downs. The support guys are happy too.

Blame it on windows is the pasttime of users. Infrastructure maintenance is the source of revenue for the h/w support vendors

There is a mutual benefit here. Till the time this benefit is available, economically, things will continue like this.

Then as in every situation, things are changing, the economics are changing. So will this scenario.

I think marc is right. There are Linux Desktop Distros out there right now -- Novell and Kubuntu for example that work great but until the IT Directors and CIO's are screaming at their proprietary app vendors certify on Linux then there will be no reason to switch over. Its the loud voice of complaining customers that drive change.

Generally people choose the software that gives the best value. We in the United States generally think we get better value with Microsoft products, but consider the same decision as it is made in third world countries, where the price of MS Office is equivalent to say 6 months salary. People in these countries are going to be looking at prices a lot closer than we do. As these countries come "on line" Microsoft will be forced to compete more and more on the low end. When you consider the size of the third world, China, Russia, etc., you contemplate a market considerably larger than what currently exists. So how will Microsoft do? Well, I'm studying Linux.

So it's a good question. There really are two distribution models, one for enthusiasts such as OpenSUSE and one for the commercial desktop like Novell Linux Desktop. Having seen early releases of the next version of Novell Linux Desktop, I fundamentally believe that the existing usability questions will become moot. The real business question is who to call when something goes wrong and that's where the companies who can provide business grade support make a difference. There are plenty of brilliant distros in the marketplace but it's the combination of a business grade build and business grade support that will make IT execs more comfortable. I believe that it's companies like Novell who are in the right position to deliver this. I also expect plenty of FUD from Microsoft, but I am perfectly functional on a Linux desktop today. The Linux desktop is absolutely worth consideration.

This best solution I have found is Ubuntu on the desktop and CentOS on the server. And yes; it can replace Microsoft right now for everything I have seen people doing on their windows PCs.

Hey guys--just posted a follow up to this posting.

http://weblog.infoworld.com/openresource/archives/2006/01/it_seems_like_w.html

Polished Desktop Linux that Windows users can instantly convert to? Easy answer. There's only one - Linspire.

GuruJ has a point. Although I have been using Linux for years, I still keep windows around for that yearly ritual called Tax. I find it hard to believe that Intuit still has not taken the time to port that application over to Linux, and I really wish they would take the plunge.

Now as to the question of Linux on the desktop, the answer has to be in ease of installing applications on Linux (keep in mind the three points of GuruJ). Overall, Linux support is all over the place so I don't see this as a big factor in moving to a Linux desktop.

The installation process of applications for a Linux system has got better over the years, but you still need to be somewhat a computer "geek" to install some of the cool things out there.

There are a lot of gamers out there and games that people play are for the most part are written for the windows environment. Sure we have games for Linux, but for the most part they are rare.

I am very delighted that I chose Linux years ago to be my work horse (server and desktop). Linux is robust, secure, and very usable for what I do. I certainly don't depend on windows for much of what I do ... however, I must confess I have a couple of Windows boxes around to support my clients who are Windows users and they keep me busy removing malware.

I have 5 computers running Win 98, Me, 2K Pro, and XP on a home wireless network. It took a very short time to set it up. I am still trying to get UBUNTU to use the network printer and the wireless. Not truly excited about Linux other than it is exciting when I can find the information to make something work. To me computers are amusement so Linux is fun but I sure wouldn't just drop Windows and go to Linux in one morning and expect to actually do something.

One word:

Ubuntu

'nuff said.
-russ