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Open Sources | Rodrigues & Urlocker » Novell profitable, but not because of Linux

December 06, 2006 | Comments: (0)

Novell profitable, but not because of Linux

Novell stalls, Red Hat grows

Its Faustian patent pacts aside, Novell has bigger problems to deal with. Namely, the ability to drive net new revenues in its Linux business. The company reported results today, and they continue to disappoint.

The good news? Novell is back in Profit Land.

The bad news? Linux isn't helping the company much.

$13 million in Linux-related revenues this quarter. That's it. (And I concur with Matthew that this doesn't seem like a 32% bump from $15 million last quarter.)

Novell must do better. Red Hat announced today that it's kicking tail in Spain (one of my company's top markets, too, btw - open source is alive and well in Spain). I wouldn't be surprised if Red Hat did as much Linux revenue in Spain as Novell did worldwide (though I have absolutely no data to support this guess). Novell must do much, much better.

If you're a Novell employee, one particular part of the earnings announcement is worrying. Jason Maynard of CSFB highlights:

While we were expecting Novell to detail a new plan to lower the cost structure in 2007, the company instead announced that it would be increasing expenses by $20-25M in the year, as part of a plan to lower expenses in 2008. The plan entails creating redundant positions in lower cost geographies, then reducing legacy positions once new hires get fully ramped. Management chose this approach because it appears it cannot eliminate anymore employees without sacrificing revenue.
Your job that you thought was safe? Not safe.

As for Novell and the apparent belief that it just can't cut heads without cutting revenue, let me give Novell some guidance on this as a former employee: yes, you can. You have all sorts of "fat" that can be trimmed from the company. On paper, you need project managers, product managers, support engineers, etc. to handle all the work you have. In practice, you have lots of Novell lifers that punch in but long ago checked out and don't deliver.

For Novell to be the aggressive, efficient machine that it must be to compete in open source, it must do more with less. Moving jobs to lower-cost geographies is a start, but it doesn't tackle the real problem: too many people doing too little.

You have some exceptional people within Novell - put more on their shoulders and rid yourself of those that come into work each day like they're collecting pensions, not paychecks. You're not doing such people any long-term favors by continuing to dole out inflated paychecks to them. Really. Let your performers perform. Let your laggards...lag. Somewhere else.

Posted by Matt Asay on December 6, 2006 10:20 AM


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I believe your analysis is spot on with reguard to Novell's efforts at staff expectations. However, I would also urge executive leadership to encourage the behavior they desire by leading with their own behavior.

It was poor form for the new executive team to reward themselves with significant unearned pay rises this year. This on the heals of the growing distrust surrounding the options whispers and disasterous leadership vacuum in the first half of the year. When did it become acceptable to simple reward behavior? I believe shareholders should demand only the rewarding of "good" behavior and "good" performance.

Finally, I believe the Novell story is a long-term play. The courtly dance that continues to proactively engage IBM and Microsoft on stage appears to be building on decades of drama. One can only hope that the hand-shakes that are being made over cigars in smoke filled backrooms are allowing Novell to strategically position for future stability and continued viability.

There is exceptional equity opportunity for Novell around the Unix IP issues and it appears that only a gross moron would toss away the potentials available through enhanced interoperability between 800-pound gorillas.

I think there would be far fewer bean counting nay-sayers to the One-Desktop holy grail if Novell can swing an exclusive Microsoft Office on SuSE Linux partnership.

Rich Wermske

Posted by: Rich Wermske at December 6, 2006 11:23 AM

Matt,

Get over Novell already. You're not the expert you think you are on Novell. Your Bio and efforts at Novell are highly exaggerated and disputed by your co-workers here. If you spent half the time actually working on Alfresco as you do promoting yourself, perhaps Alfresco would be more than a highly over-hyped product and company. Which by the way, fits you perfectly.

Posted by: Zach H at December 7, 2006 08:02 PM

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