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December 21, 2007 | Comments: (0)
Red Hat Beats Q3 Expectations
Red Hat Names Jim Whitehurst, former COO of Delta Airlines, as CEO. Szulik to Continue as Chairman. More here and here.
I missed the Red Hat earnings call as I was more interested in RIM (a good Canadian company with awesome products, and whose stock I've been holding for some time now....yes, I'm happy today).
Red Hat beat expectations on quarterly revenue of $135.4M (+28% YTY), and net income of $20.3M (+39% YTY). You can read the transcript of the earnings call here. I used it to CTRL-F for 'JBoss' to see if Red Hat would give any details on how well JBoss is doing. Red Hat provided no additional detail other than "JBoss pipeline looks good". Maybe I missed the memo, but isn't the pipeline for OSS products always "good"? You have thousands of users who are doing so without paying. The mere hope of converting them to paying customers means your pipeline is "good". But I digest.
As I commented on Matt's blog...30% is good (and I shouldn't minimize how good it is), but are we fooling ourselves thinking that 30% on a ~$500M 12 month revenue base is "proof that OSS changes everything"? Just for a little perspective [1] RIM grew revenues by 100% YTY in the quarter, on a 12 month revenue base of ~$3B. [2] Twelve month stock returns for RHAT, IBM, MSFT, ORCL.
I am more and more convinced that the OSS business model is broken. If we agree that the typical OSS vendor goes though these stages:
Stage 1: Get attention (total downloads is the key measure of success)
Stage 2: Get some revenue (tens of millions)
Stage 3: Get lots of revenue (i.e. > $250 mil)
A Support Subscription business model is the best balance of driving revenue and giving your users free stuff to build brand awareness during Stage 1 & Stage 2. But to get to Stage 3, the support business model does not scale (because people who would have paid to get your product will get your product without paying for it). OSS vendors need to sell products, not support. That is what Red Hat is trying to do (and has been doing very successfully with RHEL). The problem is, in getting to Stage 3, Red Hat (and JBoss) has trained a large set of its users that they can get great software without paying for it.
I wish I had a solution to this dilemma, other than "just use the commercial software business model from day 1".
PS: I should state: "The postings on this site are my own and don’t necessarily represent IBM’s positions, strategies or opinions."
Posted by Savio Rodrigues on December 21, 2007 06:23 AM
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Savio, Here is where, IMHO, your argument misses ".. people who would have paid to get your product will get your product without paying for it."
The assumption that they "...would have paid to get your product..." is a bad one. A lot (most even) of these user would not have paid for it and would never have used it at all.
A huge benefit of the open source business model is that a lot of people use the product that would otherwise have not. All of that use, and all of the feedback it generates, drive the quality and rate of innovation in the product in a way that, for most software products, would have been impossible. This effect makes software useful and competitive that would not have been using the commercial business model.
For most software, especially from start-ups, to use your reluctantly proposed solution of "just use the commercial business model from day 1", would mean that the cost of barriers to market entry to get to a point of critical mass would be so high that most would not be able to finance it and and wouldn't make it.
The open source model gives new companies and new products the opportunity to cross the market entry barrier in a mature and consolidated software market. It is the cost of entry.
I agree that when a new company has crossed that barrier and achieved mid-size status, like Red Hat, they may need to begin to look for strategies to find further growth.
I believe there are many opportunities to provide growth that don't abandon their open source roots, and I think we'll see some successes in developing those strategies, perhaps at Red Hat.
But to have adopted "just use the commercial software business model from day 1" would never have provided the opportunity to have a business at all. Bill Miller, xaware.org
Posted by: Bill Miller at December 21, 2007 07:12 AMAfter reading your posts for the last ~1 year, I am wondering why you are on an open source forum. It seems to me that you don't understand the point that comparing the newer model of open source software (technical and business models) to the models of the proprietary companies is not the be-all-end-all of the comparisons. Specifically the revenues and profit margins of the two models. They are different, and will be different.
Here is to hoping that one of two things happens in the new year:
- you reflect on things over the holidays, and realize that your perspective is "off" for this type of blog forum.
- the Infoworld people find people with a broader, forward looking mind, to write about open source.
John
Agree with Bill and John. Especially John. I admit I have traded barbs with Savio in the past. I still like my "Open Source Community and Barack Obama" blog that got him off his uninformed rants of JBoss not being "open source" enough.
Savio appears to be stuck in a 3 month rut yet again...it's the same old flawed analysis rehashed and restated in slightly different contexts. Comparing apples and oranges.
Prior to that, some of his blogs were fairly well thought out...maybe 2008 will inspire some fresh, rut-less thoughts.
Anyhow...off for some good food and spirits to ring in the new year.
Posted by: Shaun Connolly at December 31, 2007 04:27 PM
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