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Reality Check | Ephraim Schwartz » The demise of Google

August 14, 2007 | Comments: (0)

The demise of Google

Niche search services could herald hard times ahead for the Web's own 800-pound Gorillla

google Web 2.0Nothing lasts forever. And while Google is riding high on the crest of a wave, there is an almost imperceptible undercurrent that could spell trouble for the search giant's future.

First things first: Google makes its money delivering targeted advertising to the millions of people around the world who use its search engine.

If you own a swimming-pool supply company, you'd best buy Google keywords that cover this territory so that swimming-pool shoppers will come to your site.

On this, Google has built an empire.

Yes, there are other avenues Google is pursuing -- most notably Web 2.0 applications and, more recently, telecom. But to date, grant me that these remain unproven as major revenue streams for Google.

So what is this "imperceptible undercurrent" tickling that part of my brain that thinks about business?

Niche, vertical, boutique -- call them what you will -- search engines. These search service providers are looking at various search technologies to optimize specialized searches.

Take ZoomInfo, for example, which uses semantic search to offer search results limited strictly to business information. I don't intend to get into the guts of how a semantic search engine actually works, but suffice it to say, by using NLU (Natural Language Understanding), which can make sense of unstructured data, semantic search is better equipped to narrow down search results to a far more manageable number than Google does.

There are numerous examples of vertical search engines, such as WebMD, Travelocity, Orbitz, Petfinder, Kayak, Monster, and CareerBuilder.

Let's say you want to find a company that sells Web analytics software. Try searching on Google and then ZoomInfo, and see which provides the most relevant results.

Doing so, I got 66.8 million hits on Google.

As a registered user, I got 234 hits on ZoomInfo. But here is a sample of the first three hits from each:

Google:

Omniture Web Analytics
www.omniture.com See sample real-time reports that make your website decisions better.

Web Analytics
www.WebTrends.com Want Actionable Web Analytics? Call WebTrends at 877.932.8736

Web analytics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Web analytics is the study of the behaviour of website visitors. In a commercial context, web analytics especially refers to the use of data collected from ...

ZoomInfo:

www.websidestory.com
San Diego, CA
Revenue: $64.5 Million
Employees: 214
WebSideStory is a leading provider of on-demand Web analytics services. WebSideStory's services collect data from Web browsers, process that data and deliver reports of online behavior to its customers on demand. More than 700 enterprise customers worldwide use WebSideStory's services to... more ...

Omniture Inc (NASDAQ: OMTR)
www.omniture.com
Orem, UT
Revenue: $42.8 Million
Employees: 342
Omniture, Inc. is a leading provider of online business optimization software, enabling customers to manage and enhance online, offline and multi-channel business initiatives. Omniture's software, which it hosts and delivers to its customers as an on-demand subscription service, enables... more

Coremetrics, Inc.
www.coremetrics.com
San Mateo, CA
Revenue: $16.9 Million
Employees: 215
Coremetrics is the leading provider of digital marketing optimization solutions. Its solutions generate high return on online marketing investment and continue to pay daily dividends in improved marketing performance. Over 1,100 online business sites, transacting over $15 billion this... more

Which service offers the more relevant information in a useful format? You be the judge.

But before you scoff at the idea of Google becoming irrelevant, let me tell you about an industry I used to work in and one that I know well: magazine publishing.

In the '50s and for the better part of the '60s, the major publications were general-interest magazines such as "Life" and "Look." Their reasons for failing were complex, but two key factors played significant roles.

First, their reader bases grew so large that they could no longer support the millions of subscribers with a reasonable ad rate. At some point, advertisers decided they could reach the same audience, or an even larger segment of that audience, at the same ad rate on television.

Will Google have to trim back its search capabilities as it scales out and the company's rising infrastructure costs start to compete with what it can reasonably charge for a keyword?

The second factor that led to the demise of these magazines was niche publishing. "Life" was meant to serve a cross-section of the population, but alternatives aimed at target audiences started popping up -- "Ski Magazine" for skiers, motorcycle magazines, surfboarding magazines, and so on.

Honestly, I don’t know which came first: niche publishing or the advertisers that wanted to be part of it. Of course, there were always niche magazines. Suddenly, however, advertisers understood their value. When that happened, niche publishing took off.

Back then, Bill Ziff was the first master of this, with a stable of magazines aimed at a variety of subjects, including everything from golfing to skiing to flying. Later, he took the model to high tech. Of course, for the benefit of my own career, I'd best add that IDG's Pat McGovern is the reigning grand master in the high-tech genre.

I worked for a number of smaller New York publishers who turned the idea of niche publishing into an art form. First, they would do what the industry called a "one shot." If the one-time-only magazine earned respectable newsstand sales, the publisher would make it a quarterly, then a bi-monthly. If the ads took off, voilà, it was a monthly publication.

Look at "PC Magazine." It had so much advertising that it went semi-monthly at one point just to accommodate all those who wanted in.

Should you sell Google short? Probably not. But also keep in mind, nothing lasts forever.

Or as Frank Sinatra sang it, "That's life, that's what all the people say. You're ridin' high in April, shot down in May."

Posted by Ephraim Schwartz on August 14, 2007 03:00 AM


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At www.AltSearchEngines.com, we have been working along these same lines. AltSearchEngines, the newest blog from Read/WriteWeb, covers dozens (actually hundreds) of alternative search engines.

Every month we feature the "Top 100" of these; the criteria being some particular improvement over the traditional "Big 3" major search engines.

I'd like to invite you and your readers to stop by. The way the major search engines ignore these alternative marvels reminds me of how the "Big 3" U.S. automakers ignored those pesky Japanese imports...

Charles Knight, editor
AltSearchEngines.com

Posted by: Charles Knight at August 14, 2007 08:32 AM

Here's an idea in case anyone from Google (or Yahoo or MSN or Ask or...) wants to pick up on it - dramatically more expanded meta tagging in your search index. As an example; current awareness provider Moreover Technologies (before VeriSign bought the company and ruined it) filtered news source sites by 30+ different meta tags when presenting results to assure that information was relevant (e.g. so you didn't see news on Ace Hardware when you were looking for information on Ace Insurance). How about giving searchers a way to filter search results based on several index criteria (I mean, beyond what "Advanced Search" now offers)?

This wouldn't even have to a lot of work for the search engine; Google (or whoever) could provide webmasters with a list of questions to answer in order to be included in the meta-indexed search (industry sector, commercial or non-profit, countries of operation, etc.). Just a thought. There may be even be some ex-Moreover talent floating around that could help with this.

Posted by: Tom Pick at August 14, 2007 11:56 AM

But most of these niche search engines depend or plan to depend for revenue on distributing ads from Google, Ask.com or third-party networks. (ZoomInfo gets ads from Ask.)

Google doesn't really care if you use its search; it only cares if you click on its ads.

So boutique search services offer increased distribution of search ads, rather than competition to web search providers.

Google still needs to compete with other search providers to win partnerships with the boutiques, of course.

Posted by: Susan Kuchinskas at August 14, 2007 12:16 PM

I entered "small public tech companies" into zoominfo and google. zoominfo gave me exactly one hit: "Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT)". Google had a few million hits but the first one was: "FORTUNE Small Business 100 2007: Full list". And there were 2 other relevant ones on the first page. So I guess this is a win for google. Microsoft's live.com was very similar to google by the way. I think natural language processing has a long way to go.

Posted by: fauigerzigerk at August 15, 2007 03:36 AM

One issue that I have run into in the last six weeks is that Google is censoring search results. From October of 2006 on, Google Image Search has been throwing traffic at sites with images and relevant text.

Starting in early July, they started picking topics that they did not want to support with traffic. What happened? More people are using search engines that are not censoring. The searches are now coming from Altavista, AllTheWeb.com, Yahoo Image Search. Most is coming from Yahoo Image Search.

The Google-censored searches are all of people looking for altered images ("fakes").

Posted by: Jim Bender at August 15, 2007 11:09 AM

Old news to me...Globalspec.com, Thomasregister.net and others of their ilk have been around since the start of the Web. Maypraps their only problem is getting more of the busines community to know about them.
Cheers!

Posted by: Richard Budd at August 15, 2007 11:19 AM

Google has NEVER provided a truly comprehensive and concise search of what users really want, simply because Google's supposedly sophisticated search algorithm is actually very simplistic when compared to what people really want.

Take my company, worldlanguage.com as an example of this. We sell a category of products, language products, that is actually a large market of multiple categories of products multiplied by numerous languages. But, no one looks by "language products", they look for specific languages and categories of products. The navigational structure of our site was built to serve just that and we have, by far, the most comprehensive selection of products and information. Unfortunately we struggle just to be a bit player with Google precisely because of the navigational structure of our site and I can honestly say that the limitatins of Google has cost us millions in lost sales. Even if we accept as a point of argument that we suck at retailing, most users would want to peruse our site and see all of what is available for what they are looking for just to see what are their options. But, because of the very comprehensiveness of our information and products lists, Google cannot rank us so users can find us. We finally realized out web site navigation structure is extremely useful to users, but sucks for Google's supposedly sophisticated search algorithms. So now we are being forced into ugly and stupid tricks just to try and do for Google what Google should be able to do for itself.

The problem here is one of aggregation of data under different categories and combination of categories that Google's current methods simply are too stupid to comprehend. That is, "Language Products" covers hundreds of languages and scores of categories of product types. When a user starts looking for something like "Learn Japanese", Google goes to a specific site that is tailored to that language and that category of product. But if the user also might want Japanese Windows for their PC and dual boot software as well (a common thing for people who need to be fluent in another language for business), then Google leaves them floundering around pulling their hair, until they find our site. Google "should" have a way to aggregate these needs into a coherent search either via accumulation of multiple user searches into a single, cumulative result. Or, barring that as too difficult Google should have a way of finding sites that aggregate categories of information (and in doing so in effect creating new categories), like worldlangauge.com does, and add those sites into their top results and thus give the user a more concise as well as comprehensive response.

But try telling that to Google (and yes, we have tried for years to talk to someone at Google). We thought they would be interested to learn more about what users really want, and why and so on. But, Google is too big to care, and so I must agree with Mr. Shwartz that Google is vulnerable when users finally get fed up with not finding what they really want, and what they really want is most often to find out first what are their options. Google sucks at providing that, unless you enjoying drinking from the stream of a fire hose in your face.

Posted by: Randall Unruh at August 15, 2007 01:29 PM

I'm pleased to see more discussions regarding the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches to search and discovery and the viability of vertical and niche companies.

There’s clearly room for multiple players. Unlike broad, horizontal markets, such as traditional Internet search engines, where major competitors offer the same basic service to an identical audience, vertical and niche market companies can easily differentiate themselves and successfully coexist by appealing to specific market segments.

At www.FindEventsFast.com we’re targeting the Event vertical/niche. Technically it’s not an “Internet search engine� -- it does not crawl and harvest unstructured data from other Web sites and then rely on keyword matching and/or complex algorithms in an attempt to select the most appropriate search results. Instead, we work with structured data.

Event Organizers register, are vetted, and select from established lists of Locations and Categories that pertain to their Events. Attendees select from the same lists when specifying what type of Events they're looking for.

Posted by: Michael Cohen at August 15, 2007 03:00 PM

The longer Google avoids slicing their index into truly vertical search scopes, the more chance publishers of specialty content have for creating new destinations with targeted search results and ads relevant to their audience. Google CSE and Universal both have nibbled at this but they have not embraced it. I think Microsoft is taking an aggressive approach to becoming more relevant behind the scenes as evidenced by their recent acquisition of a health vertical and some of their research papers. So while Google is easy to paint as the one to beat, vertical search has become a chink in their armor that their closest competitors are beginning to exploit. Watch out for the underdogs in this race.

Posted by: Chris Weiss at August 16, 2007 07:38 AM

A report just released by Dogpile and Infospace says that the major search engines deliver dramatically different results.

It found that on Google, Yahoo!, MSN, and Ask the first page results overlap by less than 1% and that only 3.6% of the top ranked organic search results were the same across all search engines for any given query, down from 7.0% in July 2005.

It also found 88.3% of all results were unique to one search engine, while 8.9% were shared by two search engines, 2.2% of total results were shared by three search engines, and 0.6% of total results were shared by all four.

Also the majority of first page results were unique to one search engine, with 69.6% of Google’s first page search results were unique to Google. For Yahoo! this figure was 79.4%, 80.1% for MSN, and 75% for Ask.com.

Also paid search results also seldom overlap, only 4.6% of Yahoo! and Google sponsored links overlap for a given query. For 22.8% of all queries, Google did not return a sponsored link. whereas Yahoo! returned one or more. For 9.9% of all queries, Yahoo! did not return a sponsored link whereas Google returned one or more.

Habit is a great deadener, and if the search quality between the different engines appears so variable, what is the best search engine? Perhaps loyalty to a search engine is similar to the brand loyalty we associate with the consumer lifestyle brands like colas, cigarettes or trainers.

With the introduction of Google Universal search and Ask 3-D now integrating video , audio, maps, images as well as text results, (enabling Google and Ask to monetise video and audio via the associated advertising), but it will clutter up the results pages and will perhaps affect consumer loyalty to a search engine. Recent eyetracking studies indicate users of a search engine seldom click through to the second page of results...perhaps they will react to all this clutter like they do to intrusive interactive banner ads?

Business and professional users may also find this clutter intrusive and as time is money, they may demand that their search experience delivers the best results first and not a noisy collection of images, video, audio, maps and text.

Perhaps this represents an opportunity for specialist publishers to create vertical search services for their niche markets? UBM and Convera, for example, are creating vertical search services for the medical sector via the new www.searchmedica.com brand - and it has been reported that focus group tests with medical practioners showed that 70% preferred using SearchMedica to Google.

Posted by: Victor McGuire at August 16, 2007 11:16 AM

I think Ephraim is right on the mark. Vertical search services can produce better results through focused effort. The verticals won't produce better results in every case (e.g. "small public tech companies” apparently), but they often produce much better results and many web users are using vertical services to find information and make purchase decisions.

I have to disagree with Susan’s point in that not all verticals use ads from the big 3 search engines to monetize traffic (although most do). My company, SureHits, focuses only on the insurance & loan industries. We have our own ad sales system that allows advertisers to bid for clicks by product and state. Our model makes far more sense than keyword bidding for our industry.

Posted by: Jon Kelly at August 17, 2007 01:10 PM

founder of mylocator.com is the owner of 1200+ vertical locator domain names. claims to own the greatest strategic vertical domain portfolio network ever created. with a network like this in place it will be virtually impossible for any other multichannel vertical search engines to compete. The "king of location has taken the throne." MyLocator.com

Posted by: daniel at August 20, 2007 09:16 AM

RSSMicro with over 65 million RSS feeds, posts, and articles in its index, is the best search vertical for news and blogs. Adopting a global standard for content publishing and distribution technology (RSS Feeds), RSSMicro offers the best solution for "super dynamic" contents. Good to note that current crawling technique adopted by major search engines is a total failure when new web technologies such as AJAX are in place.

Learn more about RSSMicro search engine at: http://www.rssmicro.com/aboutus.web

Posted by: Babak at August 28, 2007 02:39 PM

As I suspected, you are being a bit deceitful. Your 68 million hits becomes 82k by simply looking for the exact phrase. Been doing searches for long?
Thats stll a lot, granted, but *several orders of magnitude better than you report!

Even without judging the quality of the results, I can still say your report is way off base.

Posted by: Rich at August 30, 2007 08:52 AM

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