Reality Check | Ephraim Schwartz | InfoWorld | iPod Touch is as doomed to oblivion as all the other handhelds | December 19, 2007 11:31 AM

MORE ENTRIES

iPod Touch is as doomed to oblivion as all the other handhelds

December 19, 2007 | Comments: (0)

iPod Touch is as doomed to oblivion as all the other handhelds

On the news that Palm Inc posted a $9.6 million loss for its second quarter ending November 30, 2007, it probably won’t come as a shock to anyone if I say that the traditional handheld is dying if not dead.

I also include in that statement the Apple iPod Touch which to me is just too similar to the far more usable iPhone.

However, I was shocked when I spoke with Ramon Llamas, IDC research analyst. All I wanted Llamas to do was to confirm my assumption that handhelds are dead but he wouldn’t do that.

"Are handhelds dead or dying?" I asked Llamas.

Neither he said and answered me with what he called a "resounding no."

But the stats appear on my side.

Shipping numbers for third quarter 07 versus third quarter 06 from IDC show a 39 percent decline in handhelds.

Shipments for second quarter 07 compared to shipments for last quarter are flat.

Here’s the numbers directly from IDC.

Worldwide shipments in Q3 2007: 725,00
Worldwide shipments in Q2 2007: 720,000
Worldwide shipments in Q3 2006: 1,200,00

US shipments in Q3 2007: 295,00; in Q2 07: 280,000; in Q3 2006: 420,000

Despite these numbers Llamas believes consumers and the enterprise are still buying plenty of handhelds and there are companies like HP still introducing new models.

"There are consumers who want the contact list and applications but don’t want to pay out a monthly fee," Llamas told me.

In addition, we have new handheld models with GPS built in that are attracting a new audience.

And while it is true that Palm hasn’t introduced a new handheld since 2005, the Treo is doing well, according to Llamas.

Yes, this furthers my contention that handhelds--except in vertical applications, especially in the supply chain for companies like FedEx and UPS--are history.

They will be replaced by smart phones in almost every instance.

So where does that leave the Apple iPod Touch?

Here, IDC was no help because they categorize the Touch as a music device not a handheld.

Nevertheless, let me go out on a limb and say the iPod Touch is a handheld--albeit limited to a few applications at the moment but a developer kit is due out along with one for the iPhone--and so it too will go the way of old technology.

One underlying reason for my belief that handhelds will fade out in favor of smart phones is because as the digital divide grows wider, we will see a world where there are those who cannot afford any electronic device on one side and those who say to themselves and friends, "for another $40, $50 or $60 per month I might as well include cellular" on the other side.

Posted by Ephraim Schwartz on December 19, 2007 11:31 AM

RATE THIS ARTICLE:

COMMENTS

"Here, IDC was no help because they categorize the Touch as a music device not a handheld."
correction:
The iPod touch is a full multimedia device that can browse the internet and purchase music over iTunes store built into it. Either way, it's no damn cellphone and actually some people want some of the features of the iPhone (or a smart-phone for that matter) without the "$40, $50 or $60 per month" extra.

no sense selling it short to support your reasoning that "it is not as good as a smart-phone"

I personally never like statements that anything is "doomed for failure" unless it is utterly flawed. which in all honesty, the iPod touch is not.

Posted by: Dizzle at December 19, 2007 09:15 PM

I'll only speak for myself on this one. I am one of those people who want a PDA/Pocket PC/handheld, without the cell phone.

Reasons?

1). I like my downtime. Always available becomes self-justifying, and leads to the blurring of work and home lives;

2). Every conversation that gets interrupted by a cell call sends a little message, "you are less important than this call. Please hold";

3). Many (most?) cellular devices are tied to contracts. You pay whether you use them or not;

4). Maybe I'm out of touch, but $50-100 a month for a service I don't use much seems excessive. It's a guaranteed revenue stream for the telcos, and I'll pass thank you!

So I will opt for a stand-alone PDA. I would be interested in cell functionality on some type of pay-as-you-go plan, which would put me in control of the ongoing expenses. I've heard of these plans and they sound promising. I've never heard of one with a smartphone, but that doesn't mean it can't be done.

Posted by: Brian at December 20, 2007 02:11 PM

I'd have to say the Touch was never intended to be a PDA/phone/anything other than an additional outlet for Apple to sell a product.

They had manufacturing contracts for a certain number of screens, chassis, whatever else goes into an iPod or iPhone and realized they couldn't end up with a huge stock of only iPhones.

Similarly to how Intel in the early PC-era (1994) produced the 486SX line of processors (a non-functioning math coprocessor); they were able to make lemonade out of lemons.

Apple isn't stupid (some would argue that, but...) and the fact they're able to take the same form factor & "gee-whiz" features (an iPhone w/touch screen), strip some applications & functions from it, drop its price and sell another boat-load to the same consumers who already have 2 or more solid state music players - they're marketing and product design geniuses.

It's called capitalism and they're working it for all it's worth.

Posted by: Brandon at January 2, 2008 01:32 PM

Technology White Papers

InfoWorld Technology Marketplace

» Technology White Papers Library

Technology White Papers by Topic

Technology White Papers E-mail Alert