Never one to let a free marketing opportunity go to waste, offshore gambling site BetUS.com is making book on the iPhone.
For example, BetUS says odds are better than even the iPhone will sell more than 12 million units in 2008 (5 to 6) and Apple's stock price will spike on June 30 (1 to 2). Other safe bets: people will camp outside stores waiting for one (3 to 1) and sell them on eBay for three times the original price (2 to 1).
But then BetUS gets downright weird. Gruesomely, they believe the odds of someone getting trampled while attempting to obtain an iPhone (20 to 1) are better than the dingus getting recalled (30 to 1) or that one of the units will spontaneously combust (150 to 1).
Any site with endorsements from former Minnesota governor/professional wrestler Jesse 'The Body Politic' Ventura and alleged comedian Andrew 'Dice' Clay can't be all bad, but I think BetUS is offering the wrong odds. Here are the right ones.
The odds that....
Your local TV news station will show cheesy video of people lined up outside an AT&T or Apple store: 1 to 5Fistfights break out between would-be iPhoners trying to get their mitts on the last one in the store: 3 to 2
Bloggers will race to be the first to complain about how the iPhone has been overhyped: 1 to 33
These bloggers will have actually seen an iPhone in person: 33,000 to 1
Some idiot will change his name to 'A. iPhone': 9 to 1
He will be sued for copyright infringement by Cisco: 3 to 2
The Golden Palace Casino will purchase a piece of cheese toast that looks remarkably like the iPhone: 25 to 1
The cheese toast will have a longer battery life: 2 to 1
The city of Cupertino will officially change its name to Appletino: 42 to 1
Microsoft will release an 'iPhone killer' device in 2008: 10 to 1
Anyone will care: 100 to 1
Steve jobs will appear in public on June 29 wearing something other than a black turtleneck and jeans: 15 million to 1
Got other odd iPhone predictions? Place your wagers below or email them to me directly. Top prognosticators will receive a Cringe bag suitable for holding their winnings (but not the winnings themselves – I'm not made of money, you know).
Posted by Robert X. Cringely on June 26, 2007 03:00 AM
