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April 27, 2006 | Comments: (0)
Dual-phones: no play in U.S.?
Want the cost savings and convenience of a single handset (and number) that roams across cellular, home and Wi-Fi? I know you do.
Today, Nokia said it was developing software with iPass to offer access Wi-FI on its new dual-mode phones.
But a new handset is just a handset without the killer app: the roaming number. Forbes.com has a good report up on why it isn't happening in the U.S. as carriers drag their heels.
Nokia, Motorola and Samsung that offer "dual-mode" technology, which enables calls using cellular networks or Wi-Fi. They will ship by the end of the year.
The report cites ABI, which projects that about 120 million dual-mode Wi-Fi/cellular handsets will ship in 2010. Strategy Analytics estimates services that integrate services will generate $33 billion in 2010.
Sure, you could use a different number and get an Ipass account to make cheaper calls, but for mainstream and business adoption the, mobile carriers have to sign on to offer a universal number using a protocol called UMA, created two years ago by T-Mobile, Cingular and Nokia.
British telecom group BT has begun offering UMA services, but T-Mobile and Cingular have no such plan just yet.
No wonder, as internet telephony frightens the parent companies, which look to landlines, with cellular network and broadband driving AT&T revenue.
But the BT example is one of a wholesale shift to IP for voice, rather than the internally-conflicting shifts with U.S. carriers.
Question is, how long can they hold out? Wi-Fi will give way to WiMax, and its blanket coverage (see Unwired in Australia for an example of this rough spec in early action in Sydney now), so such network access shifts the whole issue to the spectrum space, as opposed to the telecom/PSTN/cellular landscape.
Will the U.S. carriers hold out on dual phones until they become WiMax dual phones, which could bypass the landline and cellular networks altogether most of the time?
Posted by Mike Barton on April 27, 2006 11:28 AM
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I think the conflict mentioned is definitely true for Cingular/AT&T. With fixed, broadband and mobile services, a combined operator like AT&T needs concrete drivers to make the investment in dual mode services.
However for an operator like T-Mobile US, which is completely dependent on mobile revenues, dual mode devices and UMA are a perfect match. A mobile/Wi-Fi serivce would give T-Mobile the ability to lower costs by delivering service over IP and it would improve indoor mobile performance thus reducing churn.
Plus, a lack of 3G spectrum means T-Mo could really benefit from high speed wifi delivered to subscribers in the home or office.
Rarely do the incumbents drive innovation. In this case, operators like T-Mobile and Sprint will use dual mode technologies to change the game, and drive the incumbents to repond.
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