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July 26, 2006 | Comments: (0)
In the year 2020 -- the death of locality and other predictions
I had a talk with Hossein Eslambolchi, former president of AT&T Labs and CTO for the company. He ran down for me, ala David Letterman top ten style, his predictions for high tech in the next decade.
Number 10 --
Next generation speech recognition and Natural Language Understanding [NLU] will redefine human machine interface.
As speech recognition and NLU improve they will become the medium for the creation of the so-called Semantic Web.
According to most, the semantic Web seeks a "common framework that will allow data to be shared and reused across multiple boundaries."
At least that's how Wikipedia puts it.
In order to do this machines, not necessarily people, need to understand the meaning and context of the data which it stores.
Eslambolchi believes speech recognition and NLU are the mediums to achieve this.
Number 9
Knowledge mining will transform the way we do business
By 2010 individual databases will store 5 terabytes to 10 terabytes of data. By 2020 Eslambolchi says a single database will contain 100 petabytes of data.
Something has to change. "Normal indexing won't work," says Eslambolchi.
Number 8
Open source components at network edge will dominate
Stuff that sits on the edge now, like security and XML messaging will be integrated into the heart of the network and new things will appear at the edge.
Number 7
Broadband will be common -- death of locality.
This is a beauty. See my upcoming column on August 1st for my take. I think the death of locality could lead to the emergence of more localized services filling in the gaps where online doesn't work.
Number 6
e-collaboration and P2P will dominate the workplace
Maybe
Number 5
Sensor networks will proliferate
Yes, if you sneeze into a tissue there will be a sensor on the tissue and you'll find an email in your inbox when you get home asking if you want to reorder.
Number 4
Wireless Internet Access will grow exponentially
Sounds obvious but Eslambolchi says currently we have connections down the superhighway but not on the smaller country roads so to speak and that will be filled in over the next gen.
Number 3
Networks will become personal
Wireless IP networks will create a new class of personal devices and services. A network dedicated to you. I suppose its like a personal portal on steroids.
Number 2
Security requirements will continue to increase
Maybe even Microsoft will get it right. That's me not Eslambolchi talking.
And the number 1 technology change we will see by the year 2020 is --
Emerging networks and the Internet will be ready for the "sextuple" play.
Voice, video, data, wireless, gaming and sensory information.
Okay, go forth and build a business around one of these. You can't lose.
Posted by Ephraim. Schwartz on July 26, 2006 11:01 AM
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- COMMENTS
Sensory Network:
A general purpose Sensor Network could be too Orwellian:
Will be good for emergency situations and the like, especially in high risk areas like space and industry. Sort of like a talking systems AI on a spaceship is nice in some science fiction so you can get from here to there allot easier. Things like earthquakes and natural disasters.
Wireless Internet:
Satellite Internet will dominate. This is already possible
Network Devices:
I can see a server on a phone.
These types of innovations will only push MS to open up more as it seems to be doing already because of security but I think because of the Internet.
Emerging AI Network or Dynamic Network (Web 3.0?):
This is good for Networks to immediately know what your purpose is as you're field of expertise so you can add maximum value. like with a project related to other projects. P2P?
I would like to see this mainly in the health field where it can keep track of our DNA and memory for Life Extension. It would be all open source and free code as well as hardware to protect you properly from Identity Theft and maximize the P2P end. I think we would have to have client control to a certin extent like with all software maybe encrypted.
This Network could be beneficial overall so we don't lose a sense of who we are and our social place in life. Like keeping track so were productive and not just getting high off of the future fumes. With a personal Network we can keep track of who we are a and maximize our potential without loosing ourselves. We would need a decently open society to have a future like this where it's peaceful.
Hopefully we will move away from a primary money (up-front) focused economy and move toward a more sharing (back-end) one to keep humanity and our ecosystem more balanced. If, at that point, we can give decent healthcare, like most diseases cured and a free basic home and car etc. (like software), I think it can limit crime quite heavily.
At this point, I think Open Data, like one of InfoWorlds articles stated, is most important to enable a more sensible Science and Health sharing economy. It should make it allot cheaper to do the research. Basically everyone is just coming up with innovations, not too many inventions today. We have nano-tech and a certain way to completely cure cancer now. Also life extension should be solved in the next ten years if it hasn't already.
Also about locality, with humanity more national or universal we have better chances of moving around and dealing with outer space and harsh environments areas more easily. Even on Earth.
Benefits:
1. In Space or harsh environments not getting a disease or bringing back a disease to earth.
2. Spreading ourselves around the stars to guarantee our survival.
3.Being able to more easily set up shop or get out of an ecosystem that suits or needs for a specific purpose. Stars or suns are so different then as each other as every solar system is very diverse.
excellent work.
Entertainment and advertizing will also dominate year 2020 market.
Posted by: tom tofigh at July 28, 2006 12:52 PMTOP STORIES
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