Tech Watch | InfoWorld Staff » AJAX to overtake Flash?

October 06, 2006 | Comments: (0)

AJAX to overtake Flash?

TAGS: Web development

A recent SitePoint and Ektron survey of Web professionals suggests AJAX will soon surpass Flash as the predominant Web development model of choice. Increases in expected Microsoft-based endeavors, however, make it difficult to predict a less proprietary-based Web development project pipeline for the future.

SitePoint and Ektron's survey of 5,000 Web developers anticipates a significant surge in AJAX-based projects in the coming year, as 46 percent of respondents said they will tap the AJAX model for a project in the next 12 months, up from 30 percent this year. More intriguing is the suggestion of a tipping point in the Flash vs. AJAX debate. Whereas 40 percent of survey respondents are currently working on Flash-based efforts, only 28 percent anticipate undertaking a Flash development project in the next year. The projection comes on the heels of an AJAXWorld discussion of burgeoning security issues currently plaguing the AJAX model.

On the server side, the survey -- formally known as The State of Web Development 2006/2007, SitePoint Pty Ltd. and Ektron Inc., August 2006 -- projects an uptick in Microsoft-based projects in the coming year, as 22 percent said they plan to take up ASP.Net 2.0 for the first time in the next 12 months. Ruby on Rails will also be leaned on more heavily in the future, as 24 percent of respondents expect to begin programming with it. PHP, however, remains dominant, with 68 percent of respondents currently tapping the language, and another 16 percent expecting to join them in the coming year.

Usability, design, and search engine optimization figure prominently in the minds of surveyed developers, with more than half saying they would like to learn more about these development concerns in the coming year, on par with the to-be-expected No. 1 concern among Web developers: best practices.

Given the aforementioned AJAX/Flash tipping point, not surprisingly, 47 percent of Web developers surveyed wish there was more coverage of AJAX on the Web and in print, with desire for more resources for XHTML/CSS and PHP next in line, at 34 percent and 29 percent, respectively.

As far as the Next Big Thing on the Web, developers' responses ranged from the intentionally absurb to the insightful, with one sneeringly projecting that a "mashed-up Web 2.0 web app oracle" will crop up to tell us "what the next big thing on the Web will be."

Simplicity, elegance, and marketability remain significant concerns. As is the dominance of search engines in delivering users content regardless of source. But camps appear to be somewhat split as to how organizations' Web sites will retain relevance in tomorrow's increasingly search-intensive Web.

On the one hand, there are those who espouse a resurgent "Web 3.0" focus on content rather than functionality, with "sites that are able to provide the easiest access to the most in-depth and useful content [being] the ones [to] bank on." Others, however, see greater emphasis on "pure interaction with the user: giving the user the chance to style a site to his needs, save those preferences and have them ready every time he visits a site."

Not surprisingly, one would expect a hybrid of these philosophies -- better content, delivered how the individual wants it -- will prove the most long-lasting.

How do you see tomorrow's Web developing?

Posted by Jason Snyder on October 6, 2006 12:59 PM

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